H.E.A.D Competition 2026 · University of Niagara Falls Canada

Climate-Driven Vulnerability Assessment of Hamilton's Urban Forest

A ward-level resilience framework analysing 275,156 city-owned trees across 15 municipal wards, projecting vulnerability under SSP2-4.5 climate scenarios for 2030, 2050, and 2080. Built on the IPCC AR5 vulnerability equation with an ISA-proxy heat index following the Stewart & Oke (2012) Local Climate Zone framework.

275,156 Trees 15 Wards IPCC AR5 Framework GBIF Taxonomy Santamour 10/20/30 SSP2-4.5 · 2030 · 2050 · 2080 Python · Pandas · GeoPandas
275,156
City-owned trees
15
Municipal wards
98.9%
Valid family assigned
+4.47°C
Projected ΔT by 2080
11.9%
Norway Maple share
Ward 3
Highest vulnerability
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H.E.A.D 2026 Competition Poster
Final deliverable poster — vulnerability framework, ward trajectories, Santamour analysis, replanting priorities, recommended resilient species, and key findings.
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Team #20 Final Presentation
8-act video presentation — climate context, biodiversity assessment, vulnerability scores, city comparisons, and implementation framework.
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