Award Winner

Hamilton Urban Forest Climate Vulnerability Analysis

Climate-Driven Vulnerability Assessment & Urban Forest Replanting Strategy

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First Prize

H.E.A.D. Competition 2026

Hosted by Mohawk College · McKeil School of Business

University of Niagara Falls Canada · March 23, 2026

H.E.A.D. (Higher Education Analytics Data Competition) is a cross-institution analytics competition hosted by Mohawk College's McKeil School of Business, requiring teams to deliver end-to-end data analysis projects under time pressure.

275,156
City-owned trees
15
Municipal wards
98.9%
Species matched
+4.47°C
Projected warming by 2080

Team Members · Team #20

  • Susana Carolina Romero Aparicio
  • Su Myat Aung
  • Tessy Ramirez
  • Yi Xin(me)
Transferable Technical Skills
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275,156
multi-source records

Data Engineering

Built a multi-source ETL pipeline integrating tree inventory, climate records (1866–2026), species resilience DB, land use classification, and road network data.

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98.9%
GBIF match rate

API Integration & Validation

Queried GBIF Backbone Taxonomy API with exact + genus-fallback matching for 299 species, achieving complete family classification across 275K records.

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3
climate horizons

Statistical Modelling

Implemented IPCC AR5 vulnerability equation (Exposure + Sensitivity − Adaptive Capacity) with ISA heat-index amplification for 2030, 2050, and 2080 projections.

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14/15
wards exceed cap

Visualization & Decision Support

Delivered ward-level vulnerability maps, Santamour diversity diagnostics, and species replacement priority models — translating analysis into an actionable replanting plan.

Analysis Highlights

Highlight 1

Climate Trend

Hamilton's temperature record from 1866 to present. Under SSP2-4.5, summer mean temperature is projected to rise +4.47°C by 2080, accelerating urban heat stress.

+4.47°Cby 2080

Highlight 2

Vulnerability Evolution

Ward-level vulnerability scores evolving from 2030 → 2050 → 2080. Ward 3 rises from 0.956 to 1.423, establishing itself as the highest-risk zone.

1.423Ward 3 peak score

Highlight 3

Replanting Strategy

Priority replanting model combining built-environment stress, climate vulnerability, and biodiversity pressure. Recommends 10 high-resilience species — 9 from new genera, breaking Acer dominance.

0.966Ward 3 priority
Analysis Modules
CityLAB Project Showcase
🏙️

Invited to Winter 2026 CityLAB Project Showcase

April 7, 2026 · 1:00 PM – 3:30 PM · 58 Jackson St W · CityLAB Space

As first-prize winners of H.E.A.D. 2026, our team was invited by CityLAB to present at the Winter 2026 Project Showcase. We prepared an infographic poster and a 3-minute presentation to share our Hamilton Urban Forest Climate Vulnerability Analysis with urban planners and community partners.